Why SpaceX is Rushing to Launch Starlink Satellites
Will Starlink be earth's first and last Planetary ISP?
It is no secret that SpaceX is launching a vast number of satellites for their Starlink system this year (Starlink is SpaceX's internet-by-satellite project that is encircling the planet with satellites to deliver internet service to our world.) Last week, there were three launches of Falcon 9 Rockets carrying Starlinks.
SpaceX has set several records in its rush to launch this year.
Reuse of a single Falcon 9 booster 16 times! And the booster was recovered, so it might continue to break records.
Fastest turnaround time for the Space Launch Complex 40 launchpad at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, launching two missions in 99 hours and 11 minutes.
But Starlink is an internal project for SpaceX, and each one of these launches generates no immediate profit, whereas launching a government or commercial satellite would. Instead, they are burning through investor money in a race to build out the Starlink mega-constellation. There will undoubtedly be profits from building Starlink infrastructure, but they are all well in the future.
SpaceX makes millions when they launch sats for a company or government and have a backlog of customers. SpaceX charges $67 million+ to launch a Fallon 9 rocket that can carry 22,000 kg tons into LEO, and much more to launch a Falcon Heavy.
So why not slow down on internal projects and make millions in immediate profits?
It turns out that SpaceX is under several deadlines that have them in a mad dash to get as many Starlink satellites into space as possible.
FCC Deadline
The FCC imposes a hard deadline for completing the Starlink satellite constellations when approved. Starlink has several generations and several phases that have been approved.
Generation I Phase I of the constellation was approved in 2021 for 4,408 satellites in orbit. But all of those must be launched by March of 2027. So far, SpaceX has launched 4013 sats (3661 of which are operational). So only 395 to go! Now they don't have to launch all of the satellites in this phase, but once March of 2027 hits, the permission to build out this part of the network expires, and SpaceX would have to apply to the FCC again for permission to launch (and approvals might be more difficult in the future as I will explain in a bit).
So far, SpaceX has been approved for two phases of its Generation I constellation and one phase of Generation II. The table below shows the approximate number of satellites approved, the number of satellites launched, and the completion deadlines.
So SpaceX has about seventeen thousand satellites left to launch, if it wants to complete these constellations according to their original design. I should note, that Phase II of the Generation I seems to be abandoned, so the number is more like ten thousand. The vast majority of all satellites in orbit will be Starlink satellites.
NOTE: If you really want to geek out about Starlink and other satellite launches and orbits, check out Jonathan C. McDowell’s website.
Possible Change to FCC Approval Process
The second deadline is a looming challenge to the FCC's exception to consider the environmental impact of satellite launches. Starlink has a massive effect on the night sky, might spell an end to ground-based astronomy, and can royally screw up radio astronomy.
While most of these effects were known or thought of before the FCC approved Starlink constellations, the FCC didn't consider the impact of mega-constellations because in 1986, the FCC was granted a "categorical exclusion" to the impact review required by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). However, the FCC's exclusion is being challenged due to the impact of low-flying mega constellations on the night sky, astronomy, and space debris.
The government accounting office (GAO) found that FCC has not sufficiently documented its decision to apply its categorical exclusion when licensing large constellations of satellites. The FCC should have periodically reviewed categorical exclusion to ensure they remain current. The space industry has changed radically since 1986, yet the FCC has not reviewed or updated its policy. (some regulatory capture by aerospace may be at play here🤣). Read more from the GAO report and this paper from the Vanderbilt Journal of Entertainment & Technology Law: The Fault in Our Stars: Challenging the FCC's Treatment of Commercial Satellites as Categorically Excluded from Review under the National Environmental Policy Act.
Locking in First Mover Advantage
I usually favor second movers in emerging markets. The first movers generally prove out the technology, and the second movers catch up fast, improve on the idea and leverage their existing networks to dominate (Apple is an excellent example of a second mover).
However, operating a mega-constellation is SO capital-intensive that the costs to enter the market provide a significant barrier to entry for other commercial services. SpaceX’s lead in reusable rocket technology amplifies this barrier, since they can launch satellites more cheaply than anyone else.
If SpaceX/Starlink can capture market share, it might not be possible for other companies to enter this market. The more capital SpaceX puts into Starlink, the more significant the barrier. And as an unregulated service, Starlink could underprice its service long enough to drive off potential competitors if competition does emerge.
The internet-by-satellite market may have significant long-term advantages for the first-to-market provider. It may be that Starlink is Earth's first and only Planetary ISP for decades to come.
Orbital Debris Issues
Another reason is that Starlink might be the first and last Planetary ISP for a while is the problem with debris in low earth orbit. There is a massive issue with space debris right now, and it just gets worse and worse with each launch. The graphic below is from the European Space Agency and shows the increasing number of objects in orbit. Note that the bottom dark bars represent the payload (PL) and the rest of the material are artifacts from launch.
There is a real danger that as more objects are in space, and more near misses happen, governments will pause approval of new mega-constellations until active debris removal technology can be developed and the debris problem can addressed effectively.
As a means of concluding, I have three predictions about the future of Starlink:
SpaceX will continue to launch Starlink launches at a furious pace.
Because of the issues I mentioned. SpaceX will be the only Planetary ISP for the next 25 years.
SpaceX will spin off Starlink and it will go public, in order to to make SpaceX enormous profits, but also to spin off all the potential liabilities as well.
Let me know what you think in the comments below.